Written by: Internal Analysis & Opinion Writers
National home price appreciation remained in the slow lane in September, as overall gains barely registered and inflation continued to erode real housing‑wealth growth.
The S&P CoreLogic Case‑Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index reported an annual increase of just 1.3% in September—slightly down from 1.4% in August. Meanwhile, monthly figures show outright declines in many metros, underscoring how elevated mortgage rates are weighing on affordability and demand.
In the 20‑city composite index, every metro saw a monthly dip. The index dropped 0.5% from August and posted only a 1.36% year‑over‑year gain. The 10‑city benchmark declined 0.47% monthly but ticked up 2.0% annually.
According to S&P’s head of fixed‑income tradables and commodities, Nicholas Godec, “Over the past six months, national home prices have risen just 0.4% … negative in real inflation‑adjusted terms.” He pointed out that since June, inflation has surpassed home‑price gains, meaning housing wealth is shrinking in real dollars.
In September the Consumer Price Index indicated inflation running roughly 1.7% higher than national home‑price appreciation—the largest spread since June. Analysts interpret the gap as a signal that the housing market may be settling into a “new equilibrium” of minimal growth or outright decline in some regions.
For example, among the largest metros: Chicago posted the strongest annual gain of 5.5%, followed by New York at 5.2% and Boston at 4.1%. At the other end, Tampa, Fla., saw home prices fall 4.1% year‑over‑year.
The affordability backdrop remains bleak. High mortgage rates, stretched incomes, and elevated home‑ownership costs continue to suppress buyer demand. As one listing platform noted, active sellers outnumber active buyers by more than 30% in several markets—a classic buyer’s‑market dynamic.
In short: while homes are no longer rapidly appreciating, inflation is still running ahead. For would‑be buyers, this environment tempers wealth‑building prospects. For sellers and lenders, the assumption of continued nominal price growth needs reevaluation.
