Written by: Internal Analysis & Opinion Writers
Several of the largest U.S. real estate platforms are predicting that mortgage rates will see minimal movement in 2026, maintaining a pattern of stability rather than dramatic shifts. Despite hopes for a significant drop, most forecasts suggest rates will remain anchored in the low-6% range throughout the year.
According to industry models, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to average around 6.3% in 2026. Some analysts suggest that rates may briefly dip below 6% at times but will not remain there for long. Zillow’s housing experts note that predicting mortgage rates is notoriously difficult, comparing it to trying to forecast next year’s weather.
This rate stability could encourage a modest pickup in housing activity. One national listing platform projects that existing-home sales will increase by about 4.3%, totaling roughly 4.26 million homes for the year. The slight improvement is seen as part of a broader “reset” of the housing market, where affordability pressures ease incrementally rather than all at once.
Another forecast indicates that home price appreciation will return to more normalized levels in 2026, breaking away from the rapid gains seen in the past few years. While prices may continue to rise, the pace is expected to slow to around 2% to 3% annually — a sign that market dynamics are balancing out.
Though affordability challenges persist, many economists see 2026 as a potential turning point. Steady rates, combined with gradually rising wages and slowing price growth, may help more buyers re-enter the market. While it's not a dramatic improvement, the overall conditions are expected to be more favorable than the volatility seen during 2022–2024.
However, industry leaders caution that expectations should remain realistic. A sharp drop in mortgage rates is not likely, and any temporary declines will likely be short-lived. Affordability gains will be incremental, and demand will remain sensitive to even slight rate increases.
Ultimately, 2026 is shaping up to be a year of cautious optimism for the housing industry. A stable rate environment may not solve all of the market’s affordability issues, but it could offer a more predictable playing field for buyers, sellers, and lenders alike.
